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Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Richards Bay
Richards Bay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
4/26/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 26Umhlathuze Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay24%
×Draw31%
Mamelodi Sundowns45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richards Bay
0.76
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.17

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 54% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 122 away

creates per match

Richards Bay
0.89
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.52

allows per match

Richards Bay
0.81
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.63

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw
55%
Richards Bay or Mamelodi Sundowns
69%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
76%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+
7%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals
53%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
18%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
4%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
69%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
33%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)
34%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.63 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.52 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Richards Bay scores more
24%
level
31%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
45%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
R. WilliamsMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns · G
7.9

Match Events

23'
M. Saleng← Arthur Sales
69'
L. Mothiba← I. Rayners
69'
T. Morena← T. Ntsabeleng
79'
P. Shalulile← T. Matthews
79'
T. Mokoena← M. Allende
90'
T. Zuke← S. Barns
90'
N. Bomelo← L. Mahala

Possession

28%Richards

Shots

8Richards

Pass accuracy

44%Richards

Statistics

RichardsMamelodi
Overview
28%Possession72%
8Total Shots12
3Corners5
7Fouls8
Shots
8Total Shots12
6On Target2
2Off Target6
0Blocked4
6Inside Box6
2Outside Box6
Passing
28%Possession72%
242Total Passes625
168Accurate Passes544
69%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls8
7Offsides3

Premier Soccer League: Richards Bay 0–0 Mamelodi Sundowns

Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 26, 2026.

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (72%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Umhlathuze Sports Stadium in Richards Bay.