Richards Bay 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns: Result & Stats

Richards Bay

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mamelodi Sundowns

Lucas Ribeiro 66'

Arthur Sales 19'

12/28/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 8King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay24%

×Draw31%

Mamelodi Sundowns45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richards BayExpected goals in this matchMamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.17

Richards Bay

0.76

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.17

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 54% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 122 away

0.89

creates per match

1.52

0.81

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Richards Bay

0.89

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.52

allows per match

Richards Bay

0.81

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw

55%

Richards Bay or Mamelodi Sundowns

69%

Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns

76%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+

7%

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals

53%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

18%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

4%

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

69%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

33%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

34%

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.63 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.52 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Richards Bay scores more

24%

level

31%

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

45%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Denis Onyango

Mamelodi Sundowns · G

8.0

Match Events

19'

Arthur Sales↳ Lucas Ribeiro

34'

Moses Mthembu

36'

Lindokuhle Zikhali

44'

Lucas Ribeiro

60'

Tashreeq Matthews← Kobamelo Kodisang

60'

Iqraam Rayners← Arthur Sales

66'

Lucas Ribeiro↳ Aubrey Modiba

71'

Justice Figuareido← Somila Ntsundwana

71'

Thabiso Kutumela← Lindokuhle Zikhali

75'

Rushine De Reuck← Grant Kekana

75'

Lebohang Maboe← Aubrey Modiba

77'

Yanela Mbuthuma

79'

Ntlonelo Bomelo← Yanela Mbuthuma

79'

Sabelo Radebe← Moses Mthembu

84'

Peter Shalulile← Lucas Ribeiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RichardsMamelodi

Overview

33%Possession67%

14Total Shots5

3Corners4

6Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots5

3On Target2

10Off Target3

1Blocked0

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

33%Possession67%

290Total Passes631

217Accurate Passes573

75%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Richards Bay 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on December 28, 2024.

Goals: Arthur Sales (19'), Lucas Ribeiro (66').

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (67%) and registered 5 shots to 14.

The match was played at King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium in Durban, KN.

Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns