Mamelodi Sundowns 4–1 Richards Bay: Result & Stats

Mamelodi Sundowns

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Richards Bay

T. Matthews 62', 15'

I. Rayners 41' (pen)

M. Khoza 27'

G. Mhango 30'

9/27/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 9Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns62%

×Draw25%

Richards Bay13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamelodi SundownsExpected goals in this matchRichards Bay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.58

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.60

Richards Bay

0.58

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 176% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 63 away

1.98

creates per match

0.62

0.54

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.98

Richards Bay

0.62

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.54

Richards Bay

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Richards Bay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw

87%

Mamelodi Sundowns or Richards Bay

75%

Draw or Richards Bay

38%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

34%

Richards Bay wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

80%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

47%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

22%

Richards Bay 1+ goals

44%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

12%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

82%

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.54 · 125 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.98 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.60

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

62%

level

25%

Richards Bay scores more

13%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

K. Mudau

Mamelodi Sundowns · D

8.3

Match Events

15'

T. Matthews

27'

M. Khoza

30'

G. Mhango

41'

I. RaynersPenalty

55'

L. Mabuya← W. Ngema

62'

T. Matthews

67'

T. Maseko← Arthur Sales

67'

B. Mokoena← T. Matthews

68'

Moses Mthembu

73'

F. Basadien← A. Modiba

73'

S. Mkhulise← N. Santos

79'

L. Mtshali← M. Mthembu

80'

L. Khumalo← L. Zikhali

80'

M. Thikazi← S. Nzama

83'

P. Shalulile← I. Rayners

90+1'

Gabadinho Mhango

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MamelodiRichards

Overview

73%Possession27%

14Total Shots10

5Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots10

7On Target2

4Off Target6

3Blocked2

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box7

Passing

73%Possession27%

624Total Passes223

543Accurate Passes151

87%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides8