Mamelodi Sundowns 3–0 Richards Bay: Result & Stats

Mamelodi Sundowns

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Richards Bay

Marcelo Allende 48'

Iqraam Rayners 28'

Arthur Sales 8'

4/30/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 21Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns62%

×Draw25%

Richards Bay13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamelodi SundownsExpected goals in this matchRichards Bay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.58

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.60

Richards Bay

0.58

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 176% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 63 away

1.98

creates per match

0.62

0.54

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.98

Richards Bay

0.62

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.54

Richards Bay

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Richards Bay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw

87%

Mamelodi Sundowns or Richards Bay

75%

Draw or Richards Bay

38%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

34%

Richards Bay wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

80%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

47%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

22%

Richards Bay 1+ goals

44%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

12%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

82%

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.54 · 125 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.98 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.60

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

62%

level

25%

Richards Bay scores more

13%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Arthur Sales

Mamelodi Sundowns · M

8.7

Match Events

8'

Arthur Sales↳ Teboho Mokoena

28'

Iqraam Rayners↳ Tashreeq Matthews

46'

Fezile Gcaba← Tlakusani Mthethwa

48'

Marcelo Allende↳ Arthur Sales

52'

Jayden Adams← Marcelo Allende

53'

Sphelele Mkhulise← Teboho Mokoena

56'

Wandile Ngema← Somila Ntsundwana

63'

Themba Zwane← Iqraam Rayners

63'

Thapelo Morena← Khuliso Mudau

68'

Terrence Mashego← Aubrey Modiba

69'

Grant Kekana

77'

Asimbonge Mdunge← Thulani Gumede

77'

Ntlonelo Bomelo← Yanela Mbuthuma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MamelodiRichards

Overview

78%Possession22%

11Total Shots1

1Corners2

12Fouls3

Shots

11Total Shots1

9On Target0

2Off Target1

0Blocked0

8Inside Box0

3Outside Box1

Passing

78%Possession22%

875Total Passes232

802Accurate Passes175

92%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls3

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1