Rep. Of Ireland 0–3 Luxembourg: Result & Stats

Rep. Of Ireland

FT

0 – 3

Luxembourg

11/14/2021

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Thomond Park (Limerick)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland58%

×Draw25%

Luxembourg17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchLuxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.72

Rep. Of Ireland

1.60

Luxembourg

0.72

Rep. Of Ireland creates 122% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

1.65

creates per match

0.55

0.88

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

1.65

Luxembourg

0.55

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.88

Luxembourg

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

83%

Rep. Of Ireland or Luxembourg

75%

Draw or Luxembourg

42%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

32%

Luxembourg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

80%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

47%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

22%

Luxembourg 1+ goals

51%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

16%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

78%

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.65 + Luxembourg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.60

Luxembourg attack 0.55 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

58%

level

25%

Luxembourg scores more

17%

Rep. Of Ireland at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Rep.3-4-1-2

Luxembourg3-5-2

19

Ali

7

Eldin

3

Hassan

23

Madibo

6

Hatem

4

Bayati

13

Kheder

5

16

12

22

1

4

18

21

3

8

2

5

19

11

10

Manager: G. De Biasi

Rep. Of Ireland substitutes

23Dzhenetov12Mahammadaliyev20Çelik14Hasanalizade15Huseynov13Seydiyev17Abdullayev7Alasgarov16Diniyev6Mustafayev22Akhmedzade9Dadaşov

Manager: Félix Sánchez

Luxembourg substitutes

1Sheeb21Hassan16Abdulsallam14Ahmed18Brake11Afif20Hadhrami8Assadalla10Abdurisag2Muneer17Mohammed9Muntari