Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rep. Of Ireland vs Luxembourg — League #32 2026

Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
G. Rodrigues 85'
3/27/2021League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 2Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland73%
×Draw16%
Luxembourg10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rep. Of Ireland
2.43
Luxembourg
0.78

Rep. Of Ireland creates 212% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland
0.86
Luxembourg
1.00

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland
0.57
Luxembourg
4.00

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw
90%
Rep. Of Ireland or Luxembourg
84%
Draw or Luxembourg
27%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
51%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
91%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
69%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
43%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
54%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
18%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
88%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.86 + Luxembourg defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Luxembourg attack 1.00 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more
73%
level
16%
Luxembourg scores more
10%

Rep. Of Ireland at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. MorisLuxembourgLuxembourg · G
7.7

Match Events

13'
Olivier Thill
46'
R. Brady← M. Doherty
53'
Enda Stevens
53'
Danel Sinani
58'
Laurent Jans
61'
J. McClean← C. Clark
73'
S. Long← C. Robinson
79'
M. Deville← V. Thill
80'
Josh Cullen
85'
G. Rodrigues
88'
T. Parrott← J. Collins
88'
J. Molumby← J. Cullen
90+2'
L. Gerson← D. Sinani

Possession

63%Rep.

Shots

11Rep.

Pass accuracy

53%Rep.

Statistics

Rep.Luxembourg
Overview
63%Possession37%
11Total Shots9
3Corners4
16Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots9
3On Target4
6Off Target3
2Blocked2
9Inside Box1
2Outside Box8
Passing
63%Possession37%
559Total Passes333
468Accurate Passes249
84%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

League #32: Rep. Of Ireland 0–1 Luxembourg

Luxembourg beat Rep. Of Ireland 1-0 in League #32 on March 27, 2021.

Goals: G. Rodrigues (85').

Rep. Of Ireland controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin.