Luxembourg 0–0 Rep. Of Ireland: Result & Stats

Luxembourg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rep. Of Ireland

6/10/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Luxembourg33%

×Draw31%

Rep. Of Ireland36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchRep. Of Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.03

Luxembourg

0.98

Rep. Of Ireland

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

0.78

creates per match

0.73

1.33

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Luxembourg

0.78

Rep. Of Ireland

0.73

allows per match

Luxembourg

1.33

Rep. Of Ireland

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

64%

Luxembourg or Rep. Of Ireland

69%

Draw or Rep. Of Ireland

67%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

12%

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

62%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

26%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

8%

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

64%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

28%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

48%

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.78 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.98

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Luxembourg scores more

33%

level

31%

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

36%

Rep. Of Ireland at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Seid Korać

Luxembourg · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

Tomas de Sousa Moreira

21'

Ryan Manning← Robbie Brady

55'

Evan Ferguson

56'

Jack Taylor← Will Smallbone

57'

Festy Ebosele← Killian Phillips

58'

Danel Sinani

59'

Troy Parrott

62'

Vincent Thill← Laurent Jans

62'

Mica Pinto← Florian Bohnert

76'

Alessio Curci← Aiman Dardari

76'

Matt Doherty← Kasey McAteer

76'

Adam Idah← Evan Ferguson

82'

Eric Veiga← Gerson Rodrigues

89'

Lars Gerson← Dirk Carlson

89'

Enzo de Pina Duarte dos Santos← Tomas de Sousa Moreira

90'

John Patrick← Jason Knight

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LuxembourgRep.

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots8

5Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target1

4Off Target6

4Blocked1

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

502Total Passes358

421Accurate Passes276

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2