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Luxembourg vs Rep. Of Ireland — League #32 2026

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
C. Robinson 88'
C. Ogbene 75'
S. Duffy 67'
11/14/2021League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 10Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Luxembourg15%
×Draw25%
Rep. Of Ireland61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg
0.63
Rep. Of Ireland
1.59

Rep. Of Ireland creates 152% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Luxembourg
0.25
Rep. Of Ireland
1.43

allows per match

Luxembourg
1.75
Rep. Of Ireland
1.00

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par
Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–214%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw
39%
Luxembourg or Rep. Of Ireland
75%
Draw or Rep. Of Ireland
85%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+
4%
Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals
47%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
13%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
3%
Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
80%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
47%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)
19%
Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.25 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.43 + Luxembourg defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Luxembourg scores more
15%
level
25%
Rep. Of Ireland scores more
61%

Rep. Of Ireland at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
J. CullenRep. Of IrelandRep. Of Ireland · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
Vahid Selimović
19'
Christopher Martins Pereira
47'
Josh Cullen
52'
M. Deville← Y. Borges Sanches
56'
Shane Duffy
62'
J. Knight← A. Idah
67'
S. Duffy
68'
Laurent Jans
75'
C. Ogbene↳ J. Knight
77'
Maxime Chanot
82'
A. Browne← C. Ogbene
84'
Jason Knight
86'
S. Thill← C. Martins
88'
C. Robinson↳ J. Knight
89'
Alan Browne
90'
T. Parrott← M. Doherty
90'
C. Hourihane← J. Cullen
90'
A. Omobamidele← C. Robinson

Possession

44%Luxembourg

Shots

8Luxembourg

Pass accuracy

48%Luxembourg

Statistics

LuxembourgRep.
Overview
44%Possession56%
8Total Shots17
2Corners8
14Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots17
2On Target7
2Off Target6
4Blocked4
2Inside Box12
6Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
372Total Passes458
290Accurate Passes381
78%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls14
4Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

League #32: Luxembourg 0–3 Rep. Of Ireland

Rep. Of Ireland beat Luxembourg 3-0 in League #32 on November 14, 2021.

Goals: S. Duffy (67'), C. Ogbene (75'), C. Robinson (88').

Rep. Of Ireland controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade de Luxembourg in Luxembourg.