Reims 0–0 Paris Saint Germain: Result & Stats

Reims

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paris Saint Germain

10/8/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Reims35%

×Draw23%

Paris Saint Germain42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchParis Saint Germain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.78

Reims

1.60

Paris Saint Germain

1.78

Paris Saint Germain creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

2.14

creates per match

2.13

1.44

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Reims

2.14

Paris Saint Germain

2.13

allows per match

Reims

1.44

Paris Saint Germain

1.05

-0.81scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Reims-0.81scores less

Paris Saint Germain-0.03on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Paris Saint Germain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Reims or draw

58%

Reims or Paris Saint Germain

77%

Draw or Paris Saint Germain

65%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

17%

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

80%

Reims 2+ goals

47%

Reims 3+ goals

22%

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

83%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

53%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

45%

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 2.14 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.13 + Reims defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reims scores more

35%

level

23%

Paris Saint Germain scores more

42%

Paris Saint Germain at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

G. Donnarumma

Paris Saint Germain · G

7.9

Match Events

39'

41'

41'

42'

46'

57'

76'

M. van Bergen← A. Flips

79'

K. Doumbia← A. Zeneli

84'

N. Mbuku← D. Lopy

88'

A. Hakimi← Pablo Sarabia

90+3'

90'

90+2'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReimsParis

Overview

37%Possession63%

24Total Shots11

7Corners3

20Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots11

4On Target3

11Off Target6

9Blocked2

11Inside Box7

13Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

339Total Passes613

284Accurate Passes542

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0