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Paris Saint Germain vs Reims — Coupe de France 2018

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germainadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Reims
Reims
A. Hakimi 43'
B. Barcola 19', 16'
5/24/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · FinalStade de France

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Paris Saint Germain46%
×Draw24%
Reims30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
1.69
Reims
1.31

Paris Saint Germain creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.45
Reims
2.36

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
0.27
Reims
0.93

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
70%
Paris Saint Germain or Reims
76%
Draw or Reims
54%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
24%
Reims wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
82%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
50%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
24%
Reims 1+ goals
73%
Reims 2+ goals
38%
Reims 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
61%
Reims (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Reims away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.45 + Reims defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Reims attack 2.36 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
46%
level
24%
Reims scores more
30%

Paris Saint Germain at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
B. BarcolaParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · F
9.5

Match Events

16'
B. Barcola↳ D. Doué
19'
B. Barcola↳ D. Doué
43'
A. Hakimi↳ B. Barcola
46'
O. Diakité← J. Siebatcheu
46'
A. Tia← J. Ito
46'
Gabriel Moscardo← J. Okumu
61'
L. Hernández← Nuno Mendes
61'
Beraldo← W. Pacho
63'
M. Diakhon← K. Nakamura
71'
Gonçalo Ramos← Vitinha
71'
S. Mayulu← João Neves
71'
W. Zaïre-Emery← D. Doué
74'
J. Patrick← Amadou Koné

Possession

76%Paris

Shots

20Paris

Pass accuracy

55%Paris

Statistics

ParisReims
Overview
76%Possession24%
20Total Shots4
10Corners1
12Fouls2
Shots
20Total Shots4
8On Target1
3Off Target2
9Blocked1
16Inside Box0
4Outside Box4
Passing
76%Possession24%
809Total Passes247
742Accurate Passes184
92%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls2
4Offsides4

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain vs Reims

Paris Saint Germain beat Reims 3-0 in Coupe de France on May 24, 2025.

Goals: B. Barcola (16', 19'), A. Hakimi (43').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (76%) and registered 20 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade de France in Saint-Denis.