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Paris Saint Germain vs Reims — Ligue 1 2026

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reims
Reims
Neymar 51'
F. Balogun 90+6'
1/29/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Paris Saint Germain59%
×Draw20%
Reims21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
2.19
Reims
1.23

Paris Saint Germain creates 78% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.43
Reims
1.45

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
1.00
Reims
1.95

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.09on par
Reims-0.62scores less

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
79%
Paris Saint Germain or Reims
80%
Draw or Reims
41%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
36%
Reims wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
89%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
64%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
37%
Reims 1+ goals
71%
Reims 2+ goals
35%
Reims 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
74%
Reims (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Reims away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.43 + Reims defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.19

Reims attack 1.45 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
59%
level
20%
Reims scores more
21%

Paris Saint Germain at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
NeymarParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · M
8.3

Match Events

29'
Marquinhos
35'
Junya Ito
46'
M. Verratti← Vitinha
51'
Neymar↳ Juan Bernat
59'
Marco Verratti
59'
Marco VerrattiCard upgrade
60'
Folarin BalogunPenalty cancelled
63'
Danilo Pereira← Carlos Soler
68'
Renato Sanches← Fabián Ruiz
75'
A. Zeneli← A. Flips
75'
K. Doumbia← M. Munetsi
83'
M. van Bergen← J. Ito
83'
D. Lopy← J. Cajuste
85'
W. Zaïre-Emery← Neymar
90+4'
Gianluigi Donnarumma
90+6'
F. Balogun↳ K. Doumbia

Possession

59%Paris

Shots

12Paris

Pass accuracy

50%Paris

Statistics

ParisReims
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots17
1.69Expected Goals (xG)2.51
3Corners3
5Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots17
4On Target4
3Off Target8
5Blocked5
9Inside Box11
3Outside Box6
Passing
59%Possession41%
713Total Passes466
638Accurate Passes411
89%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain vs Reims

Paris Saint Germain and Reims drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 29, 2023.

Goals: Neymar (51'), F. Balogun (90+6').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.