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Reims vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1 2026

Reims
Reims
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
K. Mbappé 63', 16'
8/29/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Reims35%
×Draw23%
Paris Saint Germain42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reims
1.60
Paris Saint Germain
1.78

Paris Saint Germain creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

creates per match

Reims
2.14
Paris Saint Germain
2.13

allows per match

Reims
1.44
Paris Saint Germain
1.05

finishing

Reims-0.81scores less
Paris Saint Germain-0.03on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Reims or draw
58%
Reims or Paris Saint Germain
77%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
65%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+
17%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals
80%
Reims 2+ goals
47%
Reims 3+ goals
22%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
83%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
53%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)
45%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 2.14 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.13 + Reims defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reims scores more
35%
level
23%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
42%

Paris Saint Germain at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
A. HakimiParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · D
8.2

Match Events

16'
K. Mbappé↳ Á. Di María
45'
Marco Verratti
46'
V. Berisha← N. Mbuku
46'
B. Locko← Moreto Cassamá
52'
Marshall MunetsiGoal cancelled
55'
Abdou Diallo
63'
K. Mbappé↳ A. Hakimi
66'
L. Messi← Neymar
66'
Ander Herrera← G. Wijnaldum
71'
M. van Bergen← D. Lopy
75'
A. Flips← I. Kebbal
75'
L. Paredes← M. Verratti
75'
P. Kimpembe← A. Diallo
81'
H. Ekitike← E. Touré
81'
J. Draxler← Á. Di María
84'
Hugo Ekitike
88'
Leandro Paredes

Possession

33%Reims

Shots

11Reims

Pass accuracy

48%Reims

Statistics

ReimsParis
Overview
33%Possession67%
11Total Shots12
3Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots12
4On Target3
2Off Target2
5Blocked7
8Inside Box7
3Outside Box5
Passing
33%Possession67%
343Total Passes726
282Accurate Passes645
82%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
5Offsides0

Ligue 1: Reims 0–2 Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Reims 2-0 in Ligue 1 on August 29, 2021.

Goals: K. Mbappé (16', 63').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (67%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Reims.