Reims 1–0 Guingamp: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Reims

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guingamp

T. Diarra 10'

8/16/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Reims47%

×Draw26%

Guingamp27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.07

Reims

1.51

Guingamp

1.07

Reims creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 129 away

1.73

creates per match

1.25

0.90

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Reims

1.73

Guingamp

1.25

allows per match

Reims

0.90

Guingamp

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reims or draw

73%

Reims or Guingamp

74%

Draw or Guingamp

53%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

24%

Guingamp wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

78%

Reims 2+ goals

44%

Reims 3+ goals

19%

Guingamp 1+ goals

66%

Guingamp 2+ goals

29%

Guingamp 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

64%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.73 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.51

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Reims defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Reims scores more

47%

level

26%

Guingamp scores more

27%

Reims at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

E. Jaouen

Reims · G

8.2

Match Events

10'

T. Diarra↳ T. Teuma

55'

Kalidou Sidibé

61'

A. Tia← T. Diarra

61'

H. Ibrahim← J. Siebatcheu

61'

J. Siwe← A. Sagna

68'

J. Patrick← M. Gbane

70'

John Patrick

72'

D. Ourega← A. Hemia

72'

J. Hatchi← G. Ott

81'

Sergio Akieme

81'

D. N'Landu← D. Louiserre

85'

Y. Demoncy← T. Teuma

85'

O. Diakite← A. Bojang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReimsGuingamp

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots8

4Corners3

9Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots8

6On Target3

4Off Target3

6Blocked2

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

521Total Passes412

469Accurate Passes347

90%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0