Reims 0–1 Guingamp: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Reims

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guingamp

Y. Sankhare 26'

3/19/2016

Ligue 1 · Round 31Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Reims46%

×Draw27%

Guingamp27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.99

Reims

1.38

Guingamp

0.99

Reims creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 28 away

1.11

creates per match

0.96

1.02

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Reims

1.11

Guingamp

0.96

allows per match

Reims

1.02

Guingamp

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reims or draw

73%

Reims or Guingamp

73%

Draw or Guingamp

54%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

22%

Guingamp wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

75%

Reims 2+ goals

40%

Reims 3+ goals

16%

Guingamp 1+ goals

63%

Guingamp 2+ goals

26%

Guingamp 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

63%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.02 · 93 matches

Guingamp away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.11 + Guingamp defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guingamp attack 0.96 + Reims defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Reims scores more

46%

level

27%

Guingamp scores more

27%

Reims at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Y. Sankhare

Guingamp · M

8.1

Match Events

26'

Y. Sankhare↳ Y. Salibur

28'

40'

41'

46'

56'

59'

Alhassane Bangoura← F. Signorino

62'

M. Dembélé← M. Coco

71'

T. Siebatcheu← G. Charbonnier

75'

Aïssa Mandi

82'

B. Angoua← Y. Salibur

85'

A. Ndom← A. Devaux

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReimsGuingamp

Overview

74%Possession26%

19Total Shots2

7Corners1

0Fouls0

Shots

19Total Shots2

3On Target2

9Off Target0

7Blocked0

8Inside Box1

11Outside Box1

Passing

74%Possession26%

635Total Passes222

533Accurate Passes114

84%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1