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Guingamp vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Reims
Reims
M. Gbane 70'
M. Daramy 14'
3/21/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade de Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Guingamp33%
×Draw26%
Reims40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.22
Reims
1.36

Reims creates 11% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 27 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.40
Reims
1.52

allows per match

Guingamp
1.20
Reims
1.04

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
60%
Guingamp or Reims
74%
Draw or Reims
67%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
14%
Reims wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
70%
Guingamp 2+ goals
34%
Guingamp 3+ goals
12%
Reims 1+ goals
74%
Reims 2+ goals
39%
Reims 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
46%
Reims (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Reims attack 1.52 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guingamp scores more
33%
level
26%
Reims scores more
40%

Reims at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
E. JaouenReimsReims · G
9.5

Match Events

-5'
Teddy Bartouche
14'
M. Daramy
35'
John Patrick
38'
Sohaib Nair
58'
A. Samoura← A. Sagna
58'
F. Mbemba← J. Hatchi
63'
Kalidou Sidibé
66'
Louis Mafouta
68'
Ewen Jaouen
70'
M. Gbane↳ T. Leoni
71'
T. Ahile← D. Louiserre
75'
Abdel Hakim Abdallah
77'
A. Bojang← M. Daramy
77'
A. Tia← K. Nakamura
90+4'
Y. Fofana← J. Patrick

Possession

44%Guingamp

Shots

16Guingamp

Pass accuracy

49%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampReims
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots11
6Corners6
13Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots11
5On Target4
6Off Target5
5Blocked2
7Inside Box6
9Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
381Total Passes504
317Accurate Passes428
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls11
5Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Reims

Reims beat Guingamp 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Daramy (14'), M. Gbane (70').

Reims controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade de Roudourou in Guingamp.