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Guingamp vs Reims — Ligue 1 2026

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Reims
Reims
M. Cafaro 38'
1/26/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guingamp33%
×Draw29%
Reims38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.08
Reims
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 93 away

creates per match

Guingamp
0.91
Reims
1.04

allows per match

Guingamp
1.31
Reims
1.25

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
62%
Guingamp or Reims
71%
Draw or Reims
67%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
13%
Reims wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
66%
Guingamp 2+ goals
29%
Guingamp 3+ goals
10%
Reims 1+ goals
69%
Reims 2+ goals
33%
Reims 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
47%
Reims (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Reims away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 0.91 + Reims defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Reims attack 1.04 + Guingamp defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guingamp scores more
33%
level
29%
Reims scores more
38%

Reims at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
E. MendyReimsReims · G
7.6

Match Events

35'
Xavier Chavalerin
38'
M. Cafaro
46'
D. Ndong← L. Deaux
46'
C. Traoré← C. Kerbrat
56'
Marcus Coco
59'
Papy Djilobodji
62'
J. Sorbon← M. Coco
63'
B. Dia← P. Chavarría
69'
Hassane Kamara
69'
M. Martin← T. Dingomé
82'
T. Fontaine← R. Oudin

Possession

48%Guingamp

Shots

7Guingamp

Pass accuracy

50%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampReims
Overview
48%Possession52%
7Total Shots7
4Corners4
12Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots7
2On Target3
4Off Target4
1Blocked0
5Inside Box6
2Outside Box1
Passing
48%Possession52%
394Total Passes431
297Accurate Passes320
75%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Reims

Reims beat Guingamp 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 26, 2019.

Goals: M. Cafaro (38').

Reims controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.