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Reims vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 2 2018

Reims
Reims
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
10/24/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Reims44%
×Draw27%
Estac Troyes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reims
1.34
Estac Troyes
1.03

Reims creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 101 away

creates per match

Reims
1.73
Estac Troyes
1.16

allows per match

Reims
0.90
Estac Troyes
0.96

finishing

Reims+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reims or draw
71%
Reims or Estac Troyes
73%
Draw or Estac Troyes
56%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+
20%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals
74%
Reims 2+ goals
39%
Reims 3+ goals
15%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
64%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
28%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)
60%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.73 + Estac Troyes defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.34

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Reims defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reims scores more
44%
level
27%
Estac Troyes scores more
29%

Reims at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92
A. KoneReimsReims · D
8.3

Match Events

33'
Mathys Detourbet
58'
A. Salama← A. Leautey
60'
Jaures Assoumou
64'
Hafiz Umar Ibrahim
67'
J. Patrick← T. Leoni
67'
Zabi← A. Tia
74'
E. Odede← M. Detourbet
88'
N. Bassette← H. Ibrahim

Possession

60%Reims

Shots

12Reims

Pass accuracy

51%Reims

Statistics

ReimsEstac
Overview
60%Possession40%
12Total Shots14
7Corners1
12Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots14
4On Target5
5Off Target5
3Blocked4
8Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
60%Possession40%
530Total Passes358
431Accurate Passes277
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Reims vs Estac Troyes

Reims and Estac Troyes drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on October 24, 2025.

Reims controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Reims.