Estac Troyes 1–0 Reims: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Estac Troyes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reims

R. Ripart 90+3'

4/3/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Estac Troyes27%

×Draw23%

Reims50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.85

Estac Troyes

1.29

Reims

1.85

Reims creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

0.63

creates per match

1.45

2.24

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Estac Troyes

0.63

Reims

1.45

allows per match

Estac Troyes

2.24

Reims

1.95

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.62scores less than expected

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.25scores more

Reims-0.62scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Reims →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

50%

Estac Troyes or Reims

77%

Draw or Reims

73%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

11%

Reims wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

72%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

37%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

14%

Reims 1+ goals

84%

Reims 2+ goals

55%

Reims 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

35%

Reims (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 0.63, concedes 2.24 · 8 matches

Reims away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 0.63 + Reims defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

Reims attack 1.45 + Estac Troyes defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

27%

level

23%

Reims scores more

50%

Reims at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

G. Gallon

Estac Troyes · G

7.9

Match Events

9'

Yunis Abdelhamid

29'

E. Palmer-Brown← A. Rami

35'

54'

54'

59'

60'

Y. Touzghar← T. Dingomé

60'

Mama Baldé← L. Mothiba

60'

N. Mbuku← M. van Bergen

62'

Rominigue KouamePenalty cancelled

65'

74'

80'

83'

83'

R. Ripart← E. Palmer-Brown

90+3'

R. Ripart↳ Mama Baldé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacReims

Overview

57%Possession43%

19Total Shots10

6Corners3

15Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots10

5On Target4

11Off Target4

3Blocked2

9Inside Box7

10Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

479Total Passes374

405Accurate Passes299

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2