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Estac Troyes vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Reims
Reims
M. Ifnaoui 45'
M. Detourbet 14'
K. Nakamura 90'
1/17/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Estac Troyes40%
×Draw26%
Reims34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.36
Reims
1.23

Estac Troyes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 27 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.68
Reims
1.52

allows per match

Estac Troyes
0.93
Reims
1.04

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
66%
Estac Troyes or Reims
74%
Draw or Reims
60%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
18%
Reims wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
74%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
39%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
16%
Reims 1+ goals
71%
Reims 2+ goals
35%
Reims 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
54%
Reims (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.68 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reims attack 1.52 + Estac Troyes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
40%
level
26%
Reims scores more
34%

Estac Troyes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
A. MilleEstac TroyesEstac Troyes · M
9.0

Match Events

14'
M. Detourbet↳ M. Adeline
15'
Ewen Jaouen
22'
Maxime Busi
36'
Antoine Mille
40'
Thiemoko Diarra
42'
Mouhamed Diop
45'
M. Ifnaoui↳ M. Detourbet
46'
H. Sekine← M. Busi
46'
Y. Benhattab← T. Diarra
60'
M. Daramy← N. Pallois
60'
H. Ibrahim← A. Tia
71'
Ismaël Boura
77'
A. Phliponeau← M. Adeline
77'
J. Assoumou← M. Detourbet
88'
M. Gbane← Zabi
90+1'
L. Maronnier← Y. Titi
90+1'
T. Bentayeb← R. Ripart
90'
K. Nakamura↳ T. Leoni

Possession

38%Estac

Shots

12Estac

Pass accuracy

46%Estac

Statistics

EstacReims
Overview
38%Possession62%
12Total Shots15
3Corners9
12Fouls19
Shots
12Total Shots15
3On Target4
5Off Target6
4Blocked5
8Inside Box13
4Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
302Total Passes483
217Accurate Passes399
72%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls19
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Estac Troyes vs Reims

Estac Troyes beat Reims 2-1 in Ligue 2 on January 17, 2026.

Goals: M. Detourbet (14'), M. Ifnaoui (45'), K. Nakamura (90').

Reims controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.