Reims 4–0 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Reims

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Estac Troyes

J. Cajuste 82'

F. Balogun 50'

M. Maolida 44'

M. Munetsi 10'

2/12/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Reims60%

×Draw20%

Estac Troyes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.17

Reims

2.18

Estac Troyes

1.17

Reims creates 86% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.99

creates per match

1.11

1.23

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Reims

1.99

Estac Troyes

1.11

allows per match

Reims

1.23

Estac Troyes

2.37

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Reims-0.36scores less

Estac Troyes-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Reims or draw

80%

Reims or Estac Troyes

80%

Draw or Estac Troyes

40%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

37%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

89%

Reims 2+ goals

64%

Reims 3+ goals

37%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

69%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

33%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

75%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.23 · 8 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.37 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.99 + Estac Troyes defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.18

Estac Troyes attack 1.11 + Reims defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Reims scores more

60%

level

20%

Estac Troyes scores more

20%

Reims at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

A. Flips

Reims · M

8.5

Match Events

10'

29'

41'

43'

44'

M. Maolida↳ M. Munetsi

50'

F. Balogun↳ A. Flips

57'

Lucien Agoumé

64'

J. Cajuste← M. Munetsi

72'

D. Lopy← A. Flips

72'

K. Doumbia← M. Maolida

72'

D. Dongmo← J. Reine-Adélaïde

73'

R. Ripart← Rony Lopes

82'

J. Cajuste↳ J. Ito

88'

K. Sierhuis← F. Balogun

88'

V. Atangana Edoa← A. Matusiwa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReimsEstac

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots7

2.48Expected Goals (xG)0.88

5Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots7

10On Target2

7Off Target5

3Blocked0

11Inside Box3

9Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

445Total Passes384

352Accurate Passes283

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2