Reims 2–4 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Reims

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Clermont Foot

F. Balogun 30' (pen)

K. Doumbia 23' (pen)

Jérémie Bela 77'

M. Saračević 72'

K. Andrić 62', 51' (pen)

8/14/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Reims43%

×Draw28%

Clermont Foot29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.04

Reims

1.33

Clermont Foot

1.04

Reims creates 28% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 45 away

1.11

creates per match

1.07

1.02

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Reims

1.11

Clermont Foot

1.07

allows per match

Reims

1.02

Clermont Foot

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reims or draw

71%

Reims or Clermont Foot

72%

Draw or Clermont Foot

57%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

20%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

74%

Reims 2+ goals

38%

Reims 3+ goals

15%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

65%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

28%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

60%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.02 · 93 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.11 + Clermont Foot defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Clermont Foot attack 1.07 + Reims defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reims scores more

43%

level

28%

Clermont Foot scores more

29%

Reims at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Andrić

Clermont Foot · F

8.3

Match Events

7'

Folarin Balogun

21'

Florent Ogier

23'

K. DoumbiaPenalty

29'

Yohann Magnin

30'

F. BalogunPenalty

35'

Johan Gastien

47'

Emmanuel Agbadou

50'

Florent OgierPenalty confirmed

51'

Mitchell Van Bergen

51'

K. AndrićPenalty

53'

D. Lopy← K. Doumbia

62'

K. Andrić↳ F. Ogier

63'

M. Adeline← F. Balogun

64'

E. Touré← M. Busi

64'

Jérémie Bela← E. Rashani

71'

Andreaw Gravillon

72'

M. Saračević↳ J. Gastien

75'

S. Khaoui← J. Allevinah

75'

G. Kyei← K. Andrić

76'

J. Ito← A. Matusiwa

77'

Jérémie Bela↳ S. Khaoui

89'

B. Baiye← J. Gastien

89'

J. Berthomier← M. Saračević

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReimsClermont

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots10

1Corners6

18Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots10

6On Target5

1Off Target4

2Blocked1

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

315Total Passes448

242Accurate Passes380

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1