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Clermont Foot vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reims
Reims
M. Daramy 84'
1/30/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Clermont Foot34%
×Draw27%
Reims39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.18
Reims
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 27 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Reims
1.52

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Reims
1.04

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
61%
Clermont Foot or Reims
73%
Draw or Reims
66%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
14%
Reims wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
69%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
33%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
12%
Reims 1+ goals
72%
Reims 2+ goals
36%
Reims 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
47%
Reims (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Reims attack 1.52 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
34%
level
27%
Reims scores more
39%

Reims at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92
A. KoneReimsReims · D
8.2

Match Events

7'
Mory Gbane
24'
Samuel Kotto
31'
Enzo Cantero
33'
Zabi
46'
Y. Benhattab← T. Diarra
63'
A. Bojang← H. Ibrahim
63'
M. Daramy← K. Nakamura
70'
K. Bamba← J. Gastien
71'
A. Camblan← M. Tourraine
71'
F. Diedhiou← M. Guindo
78'
Famara Diédhiou
84'
M. Daramy↳ T. Leoni
87'
Adama Bojang
88'
V. Nsimba← E. H. Kone
88'
I. Fakili← A. Baallal

Possession

46%Clermont

Shots

8Clermont

Pass accuracy

49%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontReims
Overview
46%Possession54%
8Total Shots10
2Corners5
13Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots10
1On Target6
4Off Target2
3Blocked2
2Inside Box10
6Outside Box0
Passing
46%Possession54%
419Total Passes486
351Accurate Passes431
84%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 0–1 Reims

Reims beat Clermont Foot 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 30, 2026.

Goals: M. Daramy (84').

Reims controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.