Clermont Foot 1–0 Reims: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Clermont Foot

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Reims

G. Kyei 4'

4/30/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 33Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Clermont Foot32%

×Draw27%

Reims41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.33

Clermont Foot

1.13

Reims

1.33

Reims creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 93 away

1.00

creates per match

1.04

1.62

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.00

Reims

1.04

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.62

Reims

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Reims →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

59%

Clermont Foot or Reims

73%

Draw or Reims

68%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

13%

Reims wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

68%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

31%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

11%

Reims 1+ goals

74%

Reims 2+ goals

38%

Reims 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

43%

Reims (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

Reims away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.00 + Reims defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Reims attack 1.04 + Clermont Foot defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

32%

level

27%

Reims scores more

41%

Reims at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Caufriez

Clermont Foot · D

8.0

Match Events

4'

G. Kyei↳ M. Cham

64'

K. Sierhuis← T. Foket

70'

S. Khaoui← M. Cham

70'

J. Cajuste← A. Matusiwa

71'

Y. Magnin← E. Rashani

77'

K. Andrić← G. Kyei

78'

A. Maurer← M. Gonalons

78'

C. Konaté← M. Zeffane

80'

Mateusz Wieteska

81'

Folarin Balogun

85'

D. Lopy← K. Doumbia

85'

M. van Bergen← T. De Smet

90+2'

Marshall Munetsi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontReims

Overview

33%Possession67%

8Total Shots16

1.60Expected Goals (xG)0.77

6Corners8

10Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots16

2On Target3

4Off Target6

2Blocked7

7Inside Box8

1Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

289Total Passes589

201Accurate Passes504

70%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3