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Reggina vs como — Serie B 2018

Reggina
Reggina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
como
como
D. Strelec 52', 22'
P. Cutrone 89'
5/6/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina38%
×Draw27%
como35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggina
1.31
como
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Reggina
1.18
como
1.30

allows per match

Reggina
1.19
como
1.44

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par
como+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

como →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reggina or draw
65%
Reggina or como
73%
Draw or como
62%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+
17%
como wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals
73%
Reggina 2+ goals
38%
Reggina 3+ goals
14%
como 1+ goals
71%
como 2+ goals
36%
como 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)
52%
como (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

como away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + como defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

como attack 1.30 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reggina scores more
38%
level
27%
como scores more
35%

Reggina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reggina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
D. StrelecRegginaReggina · F
8.2

Match Events

22'
D. Strelec
26'
Luca Vignali
46'
S. Canestrelli← F. Scaglia
47'
Alessandro Bellemo
52'
D. Strelec↳ Hernani
56'
A. Cerri← A. Gabrielloni
56'
M. Chajia← L. Mancuso
67'
E. Terranova← R. Gagliolo
67'
L. Canotto← R. Rivas
68'
D. Liotti← G. Di Chiara
69'
D. Baselli← L. Binks
69'
L. da Cunha← T. Arrigoni
74'
J. Ménez← D. Strelec
77'
Alberto CerriGoal cancelled
83'
Žan Majer
86'
L. Crisetig← Ž. Majer
87'
Alberto Cerri
89'
P. Cutrone↳ L. da Cunha
90+4'
Jérémy Ménez

Possession

43%Reggina

Shots

17Reggina

Pass accuracy

49%Reggina

Statistics

Regginacomo
Overview
43%Possession57%
17Total Shots12
6Corners8
16Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots12
4On Target1
10Off Target6
3Blocked5
9Inside Box4
8Outside Box8
Passing
43%Possession57%
283Total Passes369
214Accurate Passes290
76%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides9

Reggina 2 – 1 como

Reggina beat como 2-1 in Serie B on May 6, 2023.

Goals: D. Strelec (22', 52'), P. Cutrone (89').

como controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Reggio Calabria.