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como vs Reggina — Serie B 2018

como
como
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reggina
Reggina
Hernani 78' (pen)
12/11/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 17Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

como44%
×Draw28%
Reggina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

como
1.32
Reggina
1.00

como creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

creates per match

como
1.40
Reggina
0.95

allows per match

como
1.05
Reggina
1.24

finishing

como+0.00on par
Reggina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

como ↓

Reggina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

como or draw
72%
como or Reggina
72%
Draw or Reggina
56%

Winning margin

como wins by 2+
20%
Reggina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

como 1+ goals
73%
como 2+ goals
38%
como 3+ goals
15%
Reggina 1+ goals
63%
Reggina 2+ goals
26%
Reggina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

como (draw refunded)
61%
Reggina (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

como at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Reggina away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

como attack 1.40 + Reggina defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Reggina attack 0.95 + como defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

como scores more
44%
level
28%
Reggina scores more
28%

como at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
T. CionekRegginaReggina · D
7.9

Match Events

38'
Luca Vignali
59'
J. Ménez← G. Gori
67'
Jérémy Ménez
72'
L. Canotto← F. Ricci
72'
R. Rivas← E. Cicerelli
72'
G. Fabbian← L. Crisetig
77'
Alessandro Bellemo
78'
HernaniPenalty
79'
J. Da Riva← T. Arrigoni
79'
Álex Blanco← P. Faragò
82'
M. Camporese← R. Rivas
84'
G. Ambrosino← L. Mancuso
89'
A. Gabrielloni← N. Ioannou
90+8'
Patrick Cutrone
90+8'
Simone Colombi
90+1'
Riccardo Gagliolo

Possession

50%como

Shots

11como

Pass accuracy

50%como

Statistics

comoReggina
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots13
4Corners8
18Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots13
1On Target3
6Off Target6
4Blocked4
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
383Total Passes373
290Accurate Passes289
76%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Serie B: como 0–1 Reggina

Reggina beat como 1-0 in Serie B on December 11, 2022.

Goals: Hernani (78' pen).

como controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como.