Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Reggina vs como — Serie B 2018

Reggina
Reggina
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
como
como
G. Denis 52'
A. La Gumina 83'
A. Cerri 61'
Álex Blanco 43'
V. Parigini 20'
4/30/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 37Stadio Oreste Granillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Reggina38%
×Draw27%
como35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggina
1.31
como
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Reggina
1.18
como
1.30

allows per match

Reggina
1.19
como
1.44

finishing

Reggina+0.00on par
como+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina ↓

como →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reggina or draw
65%
Reggina or como
73%
Draw or como
62%

Winning margin

Reggina wins by 2+
17%
como wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Reggina 1+ goals
73%
Reggina 2+ goals
38%
Reggina 3+ goals
14%
como 1+ goals
71%
como 2+ goals
36%
como 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reggina (draw refunded)
52%
como (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

como away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina attack 1.18 + como defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

como attack 1.30 + Reggina defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reggina scores more
38%
level
27%
como scores more
35%

Reggina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reggina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
V. Pariginicomocomo · M
8.3

Match Events

7'
Adriano Montalto
20'
V. Parigini↳ A. Cerri
43'
Álex Blanco↳ V. Parigini
52'
G. Denis↳ C. Adjapong
56'
R. Rivas← N. Bellomo
56'
F. Giraudo← D. Franco
61'
A. Cerri
64'
Thiago Cionek
65'
A. La Gumina← E. Gliozzi
66'
M. Paura← T. Cionek
66'
A. Galabinov← A. Montalto
76'
E. Foti← G. Denis
76'
L. Peli← V. Parigini
76'
F. Nardi← Álex Blanco
83'
A. La Gumina↳ F. Nardi
85'
A. Gabrielloni← A. Cerri

Possession

59%Reggina

Shots

16Reggina

Pass accuracy

52%Reggina

Statistics

Regginacomo
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots14
4Corners7
15Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots14
6On Target5
9Off Target4
1Blocked5
7Inside Box12
9Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
490Total Passes331
435Accurate Passes273
89%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Serie B: Reggina 1–4 como

como beat Reggina 4-1 in Serie B on April 30, 2022.

Goals: V. Parigini (20'), Álex Blanco (43'), G. Denis (52'), A. Cerri (61'), A. La Gumina (83').

Reggina controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Reggio Calabria.