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como vs Reggina — Serie B 2018

como
como
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Reggina
Reggina
A. Cerri 55' (pen)
R. Rivas 16'
12/18/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 18Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

como44%
×Draw28%
Reggina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

como
1.32
Reggina
1.00

como creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

creates per match

como
1.40
Reggina
0.95

allows per match

como
1.05
Reggina
1.24

finishing

como+0.00on par
Reggina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

como ↓

Reggina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

como or draw
72%
como or Reggina
72%
Draw or Reggina
56%

Winning margin

como wins by 2+
20%
Reggina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

como 1+ goals
73%
como 2+ goals
38%
como 3+ goals
15%
Reggina 1+ goals
63%
Reggina 2+ goals
26%
Reggina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

como (draw refunded)
61%
Reggina (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

como at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Reggina away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

como attack 1.40 + Reggina defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Reggina attack 0.95 + como defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

como scores more
44%
level
28%
Reggina scores more
28%

como at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
T. Arrigonicomocomo · M
8.3

Match Events

16'
R. Rivas
36'
Claud Adjapong
53'
Tommaso ArrigoniPenalty awarded
55'
A. CerriPenalty
60'
I. Lakićević← C. Adjapong
61'
P. Hetemaj← N. Bianchi
65'
Alessandro Bellemo
68'
E. Kabashi← A. Iovine
69'
E. Gliozzi← A. La Gumina
73'
A. Montalto← A. Galabinov
74'
K. Laribi← N. Bellomo
79'
D. Liotti← A. Cortinovis
80'
Thiago Cionek
84'
Filippo Scaglia
85'
Thiago Cionek
85'
Thiago Cionek
89'
A. Gabrielloni← V. Parigini

Possession

51%como

Shots

21como

Pass accuracy

50%como

Statistics

comoReggina
Overview
51%Possession49%
21Total Shots23
12Corners9
14Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots23
3On Target6
13Off Target9
5Blocked8
13Inside Box15
8Outside Box8
Passing
51%Possession49%
410Total Passes406
332Accurate Passes327
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Serie B: como 1–1 Reggina

como and Reggina drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 18, 2021.

Goals: R. Rivas (16'), A. Cerri (55' pen).

como controlled possession (51%) and registered 21 shots to 23.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como.