RED Star FC 93 1–3 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats

RED Star FC 93

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Estac Troyes

M. Huard 15'

J. Assoumou 68'

A. Mille 26'

M. Ifnaoui 25'

9/23/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

RED Star FC 9332%

×Draw28%

Estac Troyes40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RED Star FC 93Expected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.27

RED Star FC 93

1.10

Estac Troyes

1.27

Estac Troyes creates 15% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 192 away

1.13

creates per match

1.11

1.43

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

RED Star FC 93

1.13

Estac Troyes

1.11

allows per match

RED Star FC 93

1.43

Estac Troyes

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw

60%

RED Star FC 93 or Estac Troyes

72%

Draw or Estac Troyes

68%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

13%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

67%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

30%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

10%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

72%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

36%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

44%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 83 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 192 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.13 + Estac Troyes defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Estac Troyes attack 1.11 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more

32%

level

28%

Estac Troyes scores more

40%

Estac Troyes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Mille

Estac Troyes · M

8.5

Match Events

5'

Adrien Monfray

15'

M. Huard

25'

M. Ifnaoui↳ M. Adeline

26'

A. Mille↳ M. Adeline

45'

J. Kayi Sanda← M. Huard

48'

Antoine Mille

66'

J. Eickmayer← S. E. Khaoui

67'

68'

70'

76'

76'

77'

H. Gambor← M. Adeline

77'

M. Detourbet← J. Assoumou

82'

M. El Idrissy← T. Bentayeb

90+5'

A. Ouzenadji← A. Mille

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

REDEstac

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots15

2Corners4

17Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target8

3Off Target1

5Blocked6

9Inside Box12

3Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

461Total Passes327

387Accurate Passes263

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Match Recap: RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes beat RED Star FC 93 3-1 in Ligue 2 on September 23, 2025.

Goals: M. Huard (15'), M. Ifnaoui (25'), A. Mille (26'), J. Assoumou (68').

RED Star FC 93 controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade Bauer in Paris - Saint-Ouen.

RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: RED Star FC 93 vs Estac Troyes