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Estac Troyes vs RED Star FC 93 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
Christ Batola 56'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Estac Troyes54%
×Draw23%
RED Star FC 9323%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.83
RED Star FC 93
1.10

Estac Troyes creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.67
RED Star FC 93
0.71

allows per match

Estac Troyes
1.50
RED Star FC 93
2.00

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

RED Star FC 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
77%
Estac Troyes or RED Star FC 93
77%
Draw or RED Star FC 93
46%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
31%
RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
84%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
54%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
28%
RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
67%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
30%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
71%
RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.67 + RED Star FC 93 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

RED Star FC 93 attack 0.71 + Estac Troyes defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
54%
level
23%
RED Star FC 93 scores more
23%

Estac Troyes at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
Christ Batola
Estac
RED
Stephane Dumont
Manager: Stephane Dumont
Gregory Poirier
Manager: Gregory Poirier

Friendlies Clubs: Estac Troyes 1–0 RED Star FC 93

Estac Troyes beat RED Star FC 93 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: Christ Batola (56').