Estac Troyes 1–0 RED Star FC 93: Result & Stats

Estac Troyes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

RED Star FC 93

T. Bentayeb 43'

1/3/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Estac Troyes49%

×Draw27%

RED Star FC 9325%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchRED Star FC 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.94

Estac Troyes

1.44

RED Star FC 93

0.94

Estac Troyes creates 53% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 83 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

0.87

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.63

RED Star FC 93

1.00

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.87

RED Star FC 93

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

RED Star FC 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

75%

Estac Troyes or RED Star FC 93

73%

Draw or RED Star FC 93

51%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

24%

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

76%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

42%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

18%

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

61%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

24%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

66%

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.87 · 189 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.63 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.00 + Estac Troyes defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

49%

level

27%

RED Star FC 93 scores more

25%

Estac Troyes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

81

G. Haag

RED Star FC 93 · M

7.6

Match Events

36'

Lucas Maronnier

43'

T. Bentayeb↳ M. Adeline

46'

H. Benali← D. Sylla

46'

K. Cabral← J. Ikanga

58'

Saîf-Eddine Khaoui

65'

G. Trani← S. E. Khaoui

68'

J. Assoumou← M. Detourbet

80'

A. Phliponeau← M. Adeline

80'

R. Ripart← T. Bentayeb

84'

A. Hachem← K. Cisse

90+5'

Gaetan Poussin

90+4'

Bradley Danger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacRED

Overview

41%Possession59%

18Total Shots13

6Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots13

6On Target0

7Off Target7

5Blocked6

9Inside Box10

9Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

345Total Passes517

257Accurate Passes421

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1