RED Star FC 93 0–3 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats

RED Star FC 93

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Estac Troyes

K. Dong 90+3'

J. Assoumou 89'

R. Ripart 45+1'

11/8/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade de Paris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

RED Star FC 9332%

×Draw28%

Estac Troyes40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RED Star FC 93Expected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.27

RED Star FC 93

1.10

Estac Troyes

1.27

Estac Troyes creates 15% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 192 away

1.13

creates per match

1.11

1.43

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

RED Star FC 93

1.13

Estac Troyes

1.11

allows per match

RED Star FC 93

1.43

Estac Troyes

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw

60%

RED Star FC 93 or Estac Troyes

72%

Draw or Estac Troyes

68%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

13%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

67%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

30%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

10%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

72%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

36%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

44%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 83 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 192 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.13 + Estac Troyes defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Estac Troyes attack 1.11 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more

32%

level

28%

Estac Troyes scores more

40%

Estac Troyes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Ripart

Estac Troyes · F

8.2

Match Events

45+1'

55'

56'

66'

66'

66'

68'

71'

76'

79'

79'

A. El Hriti← D. Durand

79'

A. Fall← D. Durivaux

89'

J. Assoumou↳ Y. M'Changama

90+1'

K. Dong← C. Irié

90+1'

J. Nonge Boende← M. Adeline

90+3'

K. Dong↳ R. Ripart

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

REDEstac

Overview

61%Possession39%

9Total Shots10

5Corners7

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots10

2On Target5

6Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

514Total Passes330

428Accurate Passes246

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1