Real Unión 1–0 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cornellà

Álex Cerdá 65'

4/6/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Unión50%

×Draw27%

Cornellà24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.90

Real Unión

1.44

Cornellà

0.90

Real Unión creates 60% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.46

creates per match

0.68

1.11

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Cornellà

0.68

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Cornellà

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

76%

Real Unión or Cornellà

73%

Draw or Cornellà

50%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

25%

Cornellà wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

76%

Real Unión 2+ goals

42%

Real Unión 3+ goals

18%

Cornellà 1+ goals

59%

Cornellà 2+ goals

23%

Cornellà 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

68%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Cornellà defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cornellà attack 0.68 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Unión scores more

50%

level

27%

Cornellà scores more

24%

Real Unión at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Benito

60'

Peru Ruiz← Asier Benito

65'

Álex Cerdá

69'

Canario← Toni Arranz

69'

Luisao Macías← E. Sutherland

70'

M. Luna

71'

Víctor Eimil← Joseca

77'

Gonpi← Marc Tenas

86'

P. Soma← Antonio Caballero

88'

Alain Oyarzun← Alberto Solís

88'

Asier Córdoba← Álex Cerdá

88'

Beobide← Iván Pérez

Real

Cornellà

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cerdá

Manager: Fran Justo

60'▲Peru Ruiz←▼Asier Benito

71'▲Víctor Eimil←▼Joseca

88'▲Alain Oyarzun←▼Alberto Solís

88'▲Asier Córdoba←▼Álex Cerdá

88'▲Beobide←▼Iván Pérez

Real Unión substitutes

RuizEimilOyarzunCórdobaBeobidePérezFeeneyRieraO'ReillyAgirreBeitia

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

69'▲Canario←▼Toni Arranz

69'▲Luisao Macías←▼E. Sutherland

77'▲Gonpi←▼Marc Tenas

86'▲P. Soma←▼Antonio Caballero

Cornellà substitutes

CanarioMacíasGonpiSomaRíosSimónMeikher

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 1–0 Cornellà

Real Unión beat Cornellà 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 6, 2024.

Goals: Álex Cerdá (65').

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.

Real Unión vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 1–0 Cornellà