Cornellà 1–1 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Unión

Eliseo Falcón 66'

Nacho Sánchez 57'

3/26/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà42%

×Draw31%

Real Unión27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.83

Cornellà

1.11

Real Unión

0.83

Cornellà creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 46 away

1.08

creates per match

0.96

0.71

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Cornellà

1.08

Real Unión

0.96

allows per match

Cornellà

0.71

Real Unión

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

73%

Cornellà or Real Unión

69%

Draw or Real Unión

58%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

17%

Real Unión wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

67%

Cornellà 2+ goals

30%

Cornellà 3+ goals

10%

Real Unión 1+ goals

56%

Real Unión 2+ goals

20%

Real Unión 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

61%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cornellà scores more

42%

level

31%

Real Unión scores more

27%

Cornellà at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

J. Beobide

57'

Nacho Sánchez

60'

J. Aramburu← Iván Pérez

61'

M. Traoré← Nahuel Arroyo

61'

Raúl Tavares← Xesc Fullana

66'

Eliseo Falcón

72'

Alain Oyarzun← Jon Ander

74'

Kike López← Alfred Planas

74'

Mamor Niang← Álex López

83'

F. Andrada← Julián Luque

83'

Julen Aguirre← Beobide

83'

Julen Azkue← Carlos Bravo

86'

Ramón Folch← N. Asare

90+2'

A. Espigares

Cornellà

Real

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⚽

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Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

61'▲M. Traoré←▼Nahuel Arroyo

61'▲Raúl Tavares←▼Xesc Fullana

74'▲Kike López←▼Alfred Planas

74'▲Mamor Niang←▼Álex López

86'▲Ramón Folch←▼N. Asare

Cornellà substitutes

TraoréTavaresLópezNiangFolchGonzálezBlancoCanalesVilaplanaMartínezEnriValter

Manager: Iñaki Goikoetxea

60'▲J. Aramburu←▼Iván Pérez

72'▲Alain Oyarzun←▼Jon Ander

83'▲F. Andrada←▼Julián Luque

83'▲Julen Aguirre←▼Beobide

83'▲Julen Azkue←▼Carlos Bravo

Real Unión substitutes

AramburuOyarzunAndradaAguirreAzkueSeguínHerreroJiménezAgirre

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Real Unión

Cornellà and Real Unión drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 26, 2023.

Goals: Nacho Sánchez (57'), Eliseo Falcón (66').

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.

Cornellà vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Real Unión