Real Unión 2–0 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cornellà

Carlos Bravo 67'

Quique Rivero 45' (pen)

8/28/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Unión49%

×Draw26%

Cornellà25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Real Unión

1.46

Cornellà

0.96

Real Unión creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

0.84

1.07

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Real Unión

1.26

Cornellà

0.84

allows per match

Real Unión

1.07

Cornellà

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

75%

Real Unión or Cornellà

74%

Draw or Cornellà

51%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

24%

Cornellà wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

77%

Real Unión 2+ goals

43%

Real Unión 3+ goals

18%

Cornellà 1+ goals

62%

Cornellà 2+ goals

25%

Cornellà 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

66%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.26 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Real Unión defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Unión scores more

49%

level

26%

Cornellà scores more

25%

Real Unión at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

J. Azkue

45'

P. Martinez

45'

Quique RiveroPenalty

63'

M. Gorriti← Pere Martínez

63'

Redru← Gerard Martín

66'

Marcos Gorriti

67'

Carlos Bravo

71'

Xesc Fullana← Ramón Folch

74'

Nacho Sánchez← Aitor Seguín

80'

Carles Garrido← Rubén Enri

80'

Xavier Finot← Sergi Baldrich

88'

Alain Oyarzun← Jon Ander

88'

Miguel Santos← J. Aramburu

88'

Víctor Parada← Carlos Bravo

90+2'

F. Danese

90+3'

Julen Aguirre← Chema Núñez

Real

Cornellà

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bravo

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

74'▲Nacho Sánchez←▼Aitor Seguín

88'▲Alain Oyarzun←▼Jon Ander

88'▲Miguel Santos←▼J. Aramburu

88'▲Víctor Parada←▼Carlos Bravo

90+3'▲Julen Aguirre←▼Chema Núñez

Real Unión substitutes

SánchezOyarzunSantosParadaAguirreJasoGaguaIzaJiménezCapeleteEspigares

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

63'▲M. Gorriti←▼Pere Martínez

63'▲Redru←▼Gerard Martín

71'▲Xesc Fullana←▼Ramón Folch

80'▲Carles Garrido←▼Rubén Enri

80'▲Xavier Finot←▼Sergi Baldrich

Cornellà substitutes

GorritiRedruFullanaGarridoFinotCanalesVilaplana