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Cornellà vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Unión
Real Unión
11/11/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà44%
×Draw29%
Real Unión27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.27
Real Unión
0.94

Cornellà creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cornellà
0.89
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
73%
Cornellà or Real Unión
71%
Draw or Real Unión
56%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
20%
Real Unión wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
72%
Cornellà 2+ goals
36%
Cornellà 3+ goals
14%
Real Unión 1+ goals
61%
Real Unión 2+ goals
24%
Real Unión 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
62%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cornellà scores more
44%
level
29%
Real Unión scores more
27%

Cornellà at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cornellà 3–1 Real Unión

Cornellà beat Real Unión 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque in San Adrián de Besós.