Real Tomayapo 1–2 Always Ready: Result & Stats

Real Tomayapo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Always Ready

M. G. Barbery Gil 4'

E. Triverio 52'

H. Cuellar 21'

9/25/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 22Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Real Tomayapo41%

×Draw26%

Always Ready33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchAlways Ready

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.25

Real Tomayapo

1.44

Always Ready

1.25

Real Tomayapo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 124 away

1.37

creates per match

1.48

1.01

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.37

Always Ready

1.48

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

1.01

Always Ready

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Always Ready →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

67%

Real Tomayapo or Always Ready

74%

Draw or Always Ready

59%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

20%

Always Ready wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

76%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

42%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

18%

Always Ready 1+ goals

71%

Always Ready 2+ goals

36%

Always Ready 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

56%

Always Ready (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.50 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Always Ready defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Always Ready attack 1.48 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

41%

level

26%

Always Ready scores more

33%

Real Tomayapo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. G. Barbery Gil

21'

H. Cuellar↳ M. Paniagua

31'

J. Mamani← L. Vera

43'

M. Paniagua

46'

C. D. Medina Rodriguez← M. Paniagua

46'

D. Torrico← C. Rodriguez

52'

E. Triverio↳ M. Suarez

59'

K. Mamani← M. G. Barbery Gil

59'

J. Montano Hilton← Y. Espindola

59'

61'

63'

85'

87'

87'

P. Pernicone← H. Bobadilla

90+2'

A. Baroja

Real

Always

1

Baroja

18

▼

Rodriguez

21

Rambal

5

A

Suarez

27

Romay

13

⚽

Cuellar

11

Uzeda

29

⚽

Triverio

20

Saucedo

10

▼

Bobadilla

7

A

▼

Paniagua

25

Arancibia

20

▼

5

16

17

42

▼

Espindola

2

▼

Vera

22

Ramallo

9

Perez

31

⚽

▼

Gil

55

▼

Gatti

Manager: Juan Cortes

31'▲J. Mamani←▼L. Vera

59'▲K. Mamani←▼M. G. Barbery Gil

59'▲J. Montano Hilton←▼Y. Espindola

59'▲D. Pinto←▼F. Aguilar

87'▲A. Cordoba←▼F. Gatti

Real Tomayapo substitutes

36Barrionuevo38Cuiza33Mamani15Orellana7Aviles35Castillo6Lima8Mamani4Vaca28Cordoba30Hilton19Pinto

Manager: Julio Baldivieso

46'▲C. D. Medina Rodriguez←▼M. Paniagua

46'▲D. Torrico←▼C. Rodriguez

87'▲P. Pernicone←▼H. Bobadilla

Always Ready substitutes

99Rodriguez22Herrera14Rodriguez32Galvez37Pernicone23Andrade17Maraude30Paniagua47Salazar19Torrico9Ferrufino28Robles