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Real Tomayapo vs Always Ready — Primera División 2026

Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Always Ready
Always Ready
O. Becerra 86'
J. Orellana 82'
10/27/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 20Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Real Tomayapo41%
×Draw26%
Always Ready33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tomayapo
1.44
Always Ready
1.25

Real Tomayapo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 124 away

creates per match

Real Tomayapo
1.37
Always Ready
1.48

allows per match

Real Tomayapo
1.01
Always Ready
1.50

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw
67%
Real Tomayapo or Always Ready
74%
Draw or Always Ready
59%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+
20%
Always Ready wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals
76%
Real Tomayapo 2+ goals
42%
Real Tomayapo 3+ goals
18%
Always Ready 1+ goals
71%
Always Ready 2+ goals
36%
Always Ready 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)
56%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.50 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Always Ready defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Always Ready attack 1.48 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more
41%
level
26%
Always Ready scores more
33%

Real Tomayapo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. OrellanaReal TomayapoReal Tomayapo · D
8.2

Match Events

16'
Robson Matheus
24'
Alain Baroja
26'
E. Rodriguez← C. Lucumí
31'
Mario Barbery
40'
Mijaíl Avilés
46'
M. Tomianovic← M. Barbery
46'
O. Becerra← P. Lima
61'
Sergio Villamíl
69'
S. Sandoval← P. Arano
71'
R. Terrazas← P. Vaca
81'
D. Pinto← S. Villamíl
81'
E. Taborga← J. Briceño
81'
C. Cañozales← J. Martínez
82'
M. Cardan← S. Cuiza
82'
J. Orellana
84'
Enrique Taborga
86'
O. Becerra↳ D. Pinto

Possession

58%Real

Shots

19Real

Pass accuracy

53%Real

Statistics

RealAlways
Overview
58%Possession42%
19Total Shots6
8Corners4
14Fouls4
Shots
19Total Shots6
8On Target4
7Off Target0
4Blocked2
7Inside Box4
12Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
399Total Passes295
323Accurate Passes216
81%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls4
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Real Tomayapo vs Always Ready

Real Tomayapo beat Always Ready 2-0 in Primera División on October 27, 2024.

Goals: J. Orellana (82'), O. Becerra (86').

Real Tomayapo controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio IV Centenario in Tarija.