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Real Sociedad II vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
4/20/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II54%
×Draw26%
Fuenlabrada20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.52
Fuenlabrada
0.80

Real Sociedad II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.55
Fuenlabrada
0.58

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
1.03
Fuenlabrada
1.50

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
80%
Real Sociedad II or Fuenlabrada
74%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
46%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
28%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
78%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
45%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
20%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
55%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
19%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
73%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
54%
level
26%
Fuenlabrada scores more
20%

Real Sociedad II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 2–0 Fuenlabrada

Real Sociedad II beat Fuenlabrada 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.