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Fuenlabrada vs Real Sociedad II — Segunda División 2018

Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
5/7/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 39Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Fuenlabrada42%
×Draw27%
Real Sociedad II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuenlabrada
1.33
Real Sociedad II
1.09

Fuenlabrada creates 22% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

creates per match

Fuenlabrada
1.16
Real Sociedad II
1.12

allows per match

Fuenlabrada
1.06
Real Sociedad II
1.50

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw
69%
Fuenlabrada or Real Sociedad II
73%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
58%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
19%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
74%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
38%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
15%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
66%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
30%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
58%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 63 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.16 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Sociedad II attack 1.12 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more
42%
level
27%
Real Sociedad II scores more
31%

Fuenlabrada at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fuenlabrada 1–2 Real Sociedad II

Real Sociedad II beat Fuenlabrada 2-1 in Segunda División on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Torres in Fuenlabrada.