Fuenlabrada 1–1 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Fuenlabrada

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

12/9/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fuenlabrada37%

×Draw32%

Real Sociedad II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FuenlabradaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.89

Fuenlabrada

1.00

Real Sociedad II

0.89

Fuenlabrada creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

1.08

creates per match

0.92

0.86

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Fuenlabrada

1.08

Real Sociedad II

0.92

allows per match

Fuenlabrada

0.86

Real Sociedad II

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw

69%

Fuenlabrada or Real Sociedad II

68%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

63%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

14%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

63%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

26%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

8%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

59%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

22%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

54%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.08 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Fuenlabrada defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more

37%

level

32%

Real Sociedad II scores more

31%

Fuenlabrada at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff