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Real Sociedad II vs Fuenlabrada — Segunda División 2018

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
8/29/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Real Sociedad II38%
×Draw28%
Fuenlabrada34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.23
Fuenlabrada
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 63 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.14
Fuenlabrada
0.92

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
1.40
Fuenlabrada
1.33

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
66%
Real Sociedad II or Fuenlabrada
72%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
62%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
16%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
71%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
35%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
13%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
69%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
32%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
52%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.14 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fuenlabrada attack 0.92 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
38%
level
28%
Fuenlabrada scores more
34%

Real Sociedad II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real Sociedad II 0–0 Fuenlabrada

Real Sociedad II and Fuenlabrada drew 0-0 in Segunda División on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.