Real Madrid II 2–2 Internacional de Madrid

Real Madrid II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

Hugo Duro 43'

Carlos Dotor 37'

Rubén Ramos 90'

Fran Cortés 14'

12/5/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Real Madrid II46%

×Draw26%

Internacional de Madrid29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.13

Real Madrid II

1.50

Internacional de Madrid

1.13

Real Madrid II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.08

1.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Real Madrid II

2.00

Internacional de Madrid

1.08

allows per match

Real Madrid II

1.17

Internacional de Madrid

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

71%

Real Madrid II or Internacional de Madrid

74%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

54%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

23%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

78%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

44%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

19%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

68%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

31%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

62%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 2.00 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.08 + Real Madrid II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

46%

level

26%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

29%

Real Madrid II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

14'

37'

43'

56'

57'

A. Rashiti← Víctor Villacañas

57'

Adrián Mance← Fran Cortés

72'

Iván Morante← César Gelabert

72'

Mario Gila← Peter

77'

Adrià de Mesa← David Rabadán

77'

Reguera← Sergio Arribas

84'

Latasa← Hugo Duro

90'

Rubén Ramos

Real

Internacional

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Duro

Manager: Raúl

56'▲Hugo Vallejo←▼Marvin

72'▲Iván Morante←▼César Gelabert

72'▲Mario Gila←▼Peter

84'▲Latasa←▼Hugo Duro

Real Madrid II substitutes

VallejoMoranteGilaLatasaRodríguezJordiSolerLópezSintes

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

10'▲Arthur←▼Jesús Moyano

57'▲A. Rashiti←▼Víctor Villacañas

57'▲Adrián Mance←▼Fran Cortés

77'▲Adrià de Mesa←▼David Rabadán

77'▲Reguera←▼Sergio Arribas

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ArthurRashitiManceMesaRegueraAguileraFrancoGarranchoMarcos