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Internacional de Madrid vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
CANC
00:00
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
4/26/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid46%
×Draw24%
Real Madrid II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Madrid
1.70
Real Madrid II
1.35

Internacional de Madrid creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid
1.82
Real Madrid II
1.47

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid
1.24
Real Madrid II
1.57

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw
69%
Internacional de Madrid or Real Madrid II
76%
Draw or Real Madrid II
54%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
24%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
82%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
51%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
24%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
74%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
39%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
60%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.70

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more
46%
level
24%
Real Madrid II scores more
31%

Internacional de Madrid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Internacional de Madrid host Real Madrid II

April 26, 2020: Internacional de Madrid take on Real Madrid II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Internacional de Madrid host Real Madrid II at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.