Real Madrid II 2–2 Internacional de Madrid

Real Madrid II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

Marvin 45+1'

Álvaro Fidalgo 31' (pen)

Rufo 85', 2'

12/7/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Real Madrid II54%

×Draw26%

Internacional de Madrid20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.80

Real Madrid II

1.52

Internacional de Madrid

0.80

Real Madrid II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 33 away

1.62

creates per match

0.76

0.85

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.62

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.85

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

80%

Real Madrid II or Internacional de Madrid

74%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

46%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

28%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

78%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

45%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

20%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

55%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

19%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

73%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

54%

level

26%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

20%

Real Madrid II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Rufo

31'

Álvaro FidalgoPenalty

45+1'

Marvin

60'

Mario Gila← F. Feuillassier

60'

Martín Calderón← César Gelabert

60'

M. Boselli← N. Arkine

73'

Aythami Perera← Arthur

80'

João Pedro← Aitor Núñez

85'

Rufo

Real

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Raúl

60'▲Mario Gila←▼F. Feuillassier

60'▲Martín Calderón←▼César Gelabert

Real Madrid II substitutes

GilaCalderónBravoLópezBaezaRodrigoLópez

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

60'▲M. Boselli←▼N. Arkine

73'▲Aythami Perera←▼Arthur

80'▲João Pedro←▼Aitor Núñez

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

BoselliPereraPedroGallardoSuljevicValeroSánchez

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Internacional de Madrid

Real Madrid II and Internacional de Madrid drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 7, 2019.

Goals: Rufo (2', 85'), Álvaro Fidalgo (31' pen), Marvin (45+1').

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.

Real Madrid II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Internacional de Madrid