Internacional de Madrid 1–2 Real Madrid II

Internacional de Madrid

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid II

David Rabadán 49'

Hugo Vallejo 89'

César Gelabert 53'

3/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid41%

×Draw28%

Real Madrid II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Internacional de Madrid

1.29

Real Madrid II

1.08

Internacional de Madrid creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

1.33

0.83

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Real Madrid II

1.33

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Real Madrid II

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

69%

Internacional de Madrid or Real Madrid II

72%

Draw or Real Madrid II

59%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

19%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

72%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

37%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

14%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

66%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

29%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

57%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + Real Madrid II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Madrid II attack 1.33 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

41%

level

28%

Real Madrid II scores more

31%

Internacional de Madrid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

David Rabadán

53'

César Gelabert

67'

Arthur← Víctor Villacañas

76'

Sergio Arribas← Adrián Mance

83'

D. Barral

83'

D. Barral

87'

Junior← Gonzalo Poley

87'

Hugo Vallejo← Pablo Ramón

89'

Iván Morante← Carlos Dotor

89'

Peter← César Gelabert

89'

Hugo Vallejo

Internacional

Real

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

67'▲Arthur←▼Víctor Villacañas

76'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Adrián Mance

87'▲Junior←▼Gonzalo Poley

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ArthurArribasJuniorAguileraJiménezMarcosValeroFranco

Manager: Raúl

87'▲Hugo Vallejo←▼Pablo Ramón

89'▲Iván Morante←▼Carlos Dotor

89'▲Peter←▼César Gelabert

Real Madrid II substitutes

VallejoMorantePeterCuadrosRodríguezSolerSubielaFuidiasSintes