Reading 3–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Peterborough

C. Savage 63'

H. Knibbs 58'

S. Hughes 7' (OG)

K. Poku 66'

3/29/2025

League One · Round 39Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Reading44%

×Draw25%

Peterborough31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Reading

1.52

Peterborough

1.25

Reading creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 157 away

1.58

creates per match

1.43

1.06

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Reading

1.58

Peterborough

1.43

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Peterborough

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Reading or draw

69%

Reading or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

56%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

22%

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

78%

Reading 2+ goals

45%

Reading 3+ goals

20%

Peterborough 1+ goals

71%

Peterborough 2+ goals

36%

Peterborough 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

58%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.47 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Peterborough defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Peterborough attack 1.43 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reading scores more

44%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

31%

Reading at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Savage

Reading · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

S. HughesOwn goal

43'

Adetayo Edun

44'

Abraham Odoh

58'

H. Knibbs↳ Mamadi Camará

62'

J. Wareham← Mamadi Camará

63'

C. Savage↳ J. Wareham

66'

K. Poku↳ M. Mothersille

69'

C. Hayes← A. Odoh

69'

H. Kyprianou← A. Collins

69'

C. Johnston← J. Dornelly

69'

J. Katongo← E. Fernandez

74'

R. De Havilland← Mahamadou Susoho

76'

Cian Hayes

78'

A. Akande← K. Ehibhatiomhan

90+6'

Tom Carroll

90'

L. Holzman← C. Savage

90'

T. Carroll← H. Knibbs

90'

B. Bodin← C. Campbell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingPeterborough

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots15

5Corners1

15Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots15

7On Target4

2Off Target6

3Blocked5

7Inside Box13

5Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

424Total Passes443

339Accurate Passes371

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides4

Match Recap: Reading vs Peterborough

Reading beat Peterborough 3-1 in League One on March 29, 2025.

Goals: S. Hughes (7' o.g.), H. Knibbs (58'), C. Savage (63'), K. Poku (66').

Peterborough controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Reading vs Peterborough