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Reading vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Peterborough
Peterborough
K. Ehibhatiomhan 60'
H. Leonard 68'
J. Morgan 2'
12/9/2025League OneLeague One · Round 19Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Reading44%
×Draw25%
Peterborough31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.50
Peterborough
1.21

Reading creates 24% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Reading
1.46
Peterborough
1.25

allows per match

Reading
1.17
Peterborough
1.54

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
69%
Reading or Peterborough
75%
Draw or Peterborough
56%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
22%
Peterborough wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
78%
Reading 2+ goals
44%
Reading 3+ goals
19%
Peterborough 1+ goals
70%
Peterborough 2+ goals
34%
Peterborough 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
59%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.46 + Peterborough defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Peterborough attack 1.25 + Reading defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reading scores more
44%
level
25%
Peterborough scores more
31%

Reading at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
D. OkagbuePeterboroughPeterborough · D
7.5

Match Events

2'
J. Morgan
38'
Benjamin Woods
52'
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
58'
Jimmy Morgan
60'
K. Ehibhatiomhan
62'
M. Garbett← D. Frith
63'
J. Marriott← K. Ehibhatiomhan
63'
M. Ritchie← K. Doyle
63'
D. O'Brien-Brady← J. Morgan
68'
H. Leonard↳ K. Lisbie
73'
Harley Mills
75'
B. Khela← B. Woods
82'
A. Yiadom← K. Abrefa
82'
A. Garcia← J. R. Dorsett A.
82'
G. Lindgren← H. Leonard

Possession

47%Reading

Shots

16Reading

Pass accuracy

48%Reading

Statistics

ReadingPeterborough
Overview
47%Possession53%
16Total Shots8
1.74Expected Goals (xG)1.21
5Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots8
4On Target4
8Off Target2
4Blocked2
11Inside Box5
5Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
402Total Passes449
287Accurate Passes340
71%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Reading vs Peterborough

Peterborough beat Reading 2-1 in League One on December 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Morgan (2'), K. Ehibhatiomhan (60'), H. Leonard (68').

Peterborough controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading.