Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peterborough vs Reading — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Reading
Reading
E. Fernandez 90+6'
H. Knibbs 23', 9'
11/23/2024League OneLeague One · Round 17Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Peterborough50%
×Draw23%
Reading27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.77
Reading
1.25

Peterborough creates 42% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 69 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.90
Reading
1.32

allows per match

Peterborough
1.17
Reading
1.65

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
73%
Peterborough or Reading
77%
Draw or Reading
50%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
27%
Reading wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
83%
Peterborough 2+ goals
53%
Peterborough 3+ goals
26%
Reading 1+ goals
71%
Reading 2+ goals
36%
Reading 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
65%
Reading (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Reading away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Reading defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Reading attack 1.32 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Peterborough scores more
50%
level
23%
Reading scores more
27%

Peterborough at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. KnibbsReadingReading · F
8.3

Match Events

9'
H. Knibbs
23'
H. Knibbs↳ C. Savage
45+2'
Tyler Bindon
48'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
60'
S. Curtis← J. Dornelly
68'
A. Kanu← A. Mbengue
75'
A. Odoh← R. De Havilland
76'
J. Wareham← S. Smith
84'
C. Conn-Clarke← M. Mothersille
85'
C. Hayes← J. Sparkes
90+6'
Emmanuel Fernandez
90+6'
E. Fernandez↳ C. Conn-Clarke

Possession

62%Peterborough

Shots

21Peterborough

Pass accuracy

53%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughReading
Overview
62%Possession38%
21Total Shots17
10Corners2
5Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots17
6On Target6
5Off Target8
10Blocked3
14Inside Box13
7Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
531Total Passes325
453Accurate Passes247
85%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
5Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

League One: Peterborough 1–2 Reading

Reading beat Peterborough 2-1 in League One on November 23, 2024.

Goals: H. Knibbs (9', 23'), E. Fernandez (90+6').

Peterborough controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 17.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.