Peterborough 1–1 Reading: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Reading

G. Lindgren 78'

D. Kyerewaa 26'

12/29/2025

League One · Round 23Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Peterborough43%

×Draw25%

Reading31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.24

Peterborough

1.50

Reading

1.24

Peterborough creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.62

creates per match

1.29

1.19

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Peterborough

1.62

Reading

1.29

allows per match

Peterborough

1.19

Reading

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

69%

Peterborough or Reading

75%

Draw or Reading

57%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

21%

Reading wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

78%

Peterborough 2+ goals

44%

Peterborough 3+ goals

19%

Reading 1+ goals

71%

Reading 2+ goals

35%

Reading 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

58%

Reading (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Reading away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.62 + Reading defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Reading attack 1.29 + Peterborough defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peterborough scores more

43%

level

25%

Reading scores more

31%

Peterborough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Pereira

Reading · G

8.3

Match Events

17'

Kami Doyle

26'

D. Kyerewaa↳ J. Marriott

53'

Archie Collins

53'

D. Frith← J. Morgan

68'

G. Lindgren← B. Woods

69'

69'

72'

74'

75'

76'

M. O'Mahony← J. Marriott

78'

G. Lindgren

82'

C. Hayes← K. Lisbie

85'

M. Ritchie← C. Savage

90+5'

Kelvin Abrefa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughReading

Overview

67%Possession33%

20Total Shots3

3.08Expected Goals (xG)0.55

7Corners2

5Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots3

6On Target3

8Off Target0

6Blocked0

14Inside Box1

6Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

529Total Passes274

471Accurate Passes184

89%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Reading

Peterborough and Reading drew 1-1 in League One on December 29, 2025.

Goals: D. Kyerewaa (26'), G. Lindgren (78').

Peterborough controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 3.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Reading — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Reading