Reading 0–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

E. Mason-Clark 43'

8/5/2023

League One · Round 1Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Reading49%

×Draw25%

Peterborough27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.15

Reading

1.64

Peterborough

1.15

Reading creates 43% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.36

creates per match

1.24

1.06

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Reading

1.36

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Peterborough

1.92

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Reading or draw

73%

Reading or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

51%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

26%

Peterborough wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

81%

Reading 2+ goals

49%

Reading 3+ goals

23%

Peterborough 1+ goals

68%

Peterborough 2+ goals

32%

Peterborough 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

65%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Reading scores more

49%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

27%

Reading at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Bilokapić

Peterborough · G

8.3

Match Events

8'

21'

23'

38'

43'

E. Mason-Clark↳ K. Poku

49'

R. Jones← E. Mason-Clark

53'

Charlie Savage

61'

L. Wing← K. Ehibhatiomhan

61'

A. Mbengue← A. Yiadom

65'

Nesta Guinness-Walker

66'

Ronnie Edwards

71'

T. Rushesha← S. Hutchinson

73'

Thomas Holmes

78'

Mamadi Camará← H. Knibbs

78'

C. Vickers← O. Azeez

85'

D. Ajiboye← J. Randall

86'

Hector Kyprianou

88'

J. Fuchs← K. Poku

90+9'

Ricky Jade-Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingPeterborough

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots13

6Corners6

12Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots13

5On Target6

3Off Target6

8Blocked1

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

427Total Passes517

347Accurate Passes433

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls9

6Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

League One: Reading 0–1 Peterborough

Peterborough beat Reading 1-0 in League One on August 5, 2023.

Goals: E. Mason-Clark (43').

Peterborough controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Reading 0–1 Peterborough